South African motorists could face a severe fuel price increase next month, with new data from the Central Energy Fund indicating a potential rise of nearly R4.00 per litre for petrol in April, even before additional fuel levies are applied.
The latest CEF snapshot based on the second week of March, shows that fuel price recoveries have worsened significantly.
Petrol is currently showing an under-recovery ranging from R3.62 to R3.98 per litre. Diesel is under even greater pressure, with under-recoveries between R6.63 and R6.75 per litre. Illuminating paraffin has recorded the highest under-recovery at R8.53 per litre.
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These figures point to a sharp increase in fuel costs if current trends continue.
Projected Fuel Price Changes
| Fuel Type | Expected Increase |
|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | 362 cents per litre |
| Petrol 95 | 398 cents per litre |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | 663 cents per litre |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | 675 cents per litre |
| Illuminating paraffin | 853 cents per litre |
Global Conflict Driving Oil Price Surge
The worsening under-recoveries are largely linked to rising global oil prices, driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East.
At the end of March, the United States and Israel launched a major military operation targeting Iran. In response, Iran carried out retaliatory strikes on US-linked bases across the region, intensifying geopolitical tensions.
This conflict triggered a sharp rise in global oil prices, which surged from below $60 per barrel earlier in the year to above $110 per barrel. Although prices have slightly eased, they are still holding above the $100 mark.
At the same time, investor sentiment shifted toward safer assets, causing the South African rand to weaken. The currency moved from below R16 to nearly R17 against the US dollar, reducing its earlier gains.
While stronger commodity prices such as gold and platinum offered limited support, they have not been enough to offset the broader market pressure.
Rand Weakness and Oil Prices Create Double Impact
South Africa is now facing a challenging combination of high oil prices and a weaker currency. This double impact is expected to drive fuel prices significantly higher in the coming month.
The situation reflects a worst-case scenario where both international and domestic factors are working against fuel affordability.
Additional Pressure from Fuel Levy Increases
From 1 April, new fuel tax adjustments will further increase the cost burden on motorists.
The changes include:
- The general fuel levy will rise by 9 cents per litre for petrol and 8 cents for diesel, bringing it to R4.10 and R3.93 per litre respectively.
- The carbon fuel levy will increase by 5 cents per litre for petrol and 6 cents for diesel.
- The Road Accident Fund levy will increase by 7 cents per litre, reaching R2.25 per litre.
These combined increases will add roughly 21 cents per litre to petrol prices.
Calls to Delay or Reduce Fuel Taxes
Civil rights organisation AfriForum has called on the government to reconsider the planned fuel levy increases. The group has urged Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to suspend the hikes and introduce temporary tax relief measures to ease the pressure on consumers.
A similar intervention was implemented in 2022, when the government reduced the general fuel levy by R1.50 per litre to support households during the global energy crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Although the levy was gradually restored as conditions improved, it remained frozen until 2025. With current market conditions deteriorating again, there are growing calls for similar relief measures to be reintroduced.
